At its most recent rate announcement on January 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, its sixth consecutive rate cut, marking the end of quantitative tightening. While smaller than the last two “supersized” 50 basis point cuts, the BoC was widely expected to continue rate cuts with this announcement.
“Inflation has been close to the 2% target since last summer. Monetary policy has worked to restore price stability…Lower interest rates are boosting household spending and economic activity is picking up,” said BoC Governor Tiff Macklem in his press conference opening statement. However, he added that the threat of U.S. tariffs created uncertainty with the central bank’s projections, which were not incorporated into their outlook or most recent Monetary Policy Report: “The potential for a trade conflict triggered by new U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports is a major uncertainty. This could be very disruptive to the Canadian economy and is clouding the economic outlook.”
Headline inflation has eased from 8.1% in June 2022 to 1.8% in December 2024 and now firmly sits within the central bank’s 1% to 3% target. In recent months, business and consumer expectations have normalized and there is no longer evidence of broad-based inflationary pressures, noted Macklem; even shelter price inflation, which has been historically elevated, is slowly coming down.
However, at the time of its announcement, Macklem said that U.S. President Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian imports and a long-lasting and broad-based trade conflict would “badly hurt economic activity in Canada.”
“Unfortunately, tariffs mean economies simply work less efficiently—we produce and earn less than without tariffs,” said Macklem. “Monetary policy cannot offset this. What we can do is help the economy adjust.”
He added, ”As we consider our monetary policy response, we will need to carefully assess the downward pressure on inflation from weakness in the economy, and weigh that against the upward pressure on inflation from higher input prices and supply chain disruptions.”
Since the central bank’s announcement, President Trump announced that he is moving ahead with a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico as of Tuesday, February 4, 2025. In response, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on $155 billion of U.S. goods. Economists responded that Trump’s move could throw Canada into recession and cause unemployment to surge.
BMO chief economist Douglas Porter wrote in a research note that while the bank previously forecast two more cuts in April and July, bringing the benchmark rate to 2.5%, “We now look for the quarter-point pace to continue each meeting until October, thus ending at 1.5%.” National Bank chief economist and strategist Stéfane Marion wrote that there is a “strong argument for an emergency or inter-meeting interest rate cut by the BoC” of at least 50 basis points, followed by two additional 25 basis point cuts in March and April, bringing the policy target rate to 2% by spring.
However, after some last-hour negotiations with Prime Minister Trudeau, Trump has announced a 30-day pause on imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
The next scheduled rate announcement is on March 12, 2025.
Related: The Bank of Canada Cuts Key Interest Rate to 3%